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RECIDIVISM (CRIMINAL)

Sociologyindex, Sociology Books 2012

Recidivism is repetition of criminal behavior by an offender previously convicted and punished for an offence. Recidivism is a measure of the effectiveness of rehabilitation programs or the deterrent effect of punishment.

While an important concept in evaluation research, criminologists have great difficulty in determining just how to measure recidivism. For example, Is it recidivism to commit a less serious offence than the previous offence?

Is it recidivism to be returned to prison for a violation of the terms of parole (ie: a criminal offence has not been committed)?

Predictors of Juvenile Court Actions and Recidivism 
Kevin I. Minor, David J. Hartmann, Sue Terry 
Variables related to court decision making and recidivism over a two-year follow-up were studied in a group of 475 first-time referrals to a juvenile court. Recidivism was associated with extralegal factors more consistently than were court actions except on the age variable. Court actions were more strongly related to legally relevant factors and, like the referral offense variable, failed to predict recidivism. The court's extensive and repeated reliance on diversion (vs. formal petitioning of cases) did not generate high recidivism levels, implying a need to reconsider the recent "get tough" orientation of juvenile justice policy. - cad.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/43/3/328

Assessment of Criminal Recidivism Risk with Adolescents who have Offended Sexually, 
James R. Worling, Niklas Långström, Karolinska Institutet 
The assessment of criminal recidivism risk among adolescents who have offended sexually is a complex task with significant implications for the adolescent and the community. We reviewed the empirical and professional literature on factors associated with criminal recidivism in adolescents who have offended sexually. Sup-ported, promising, possible, and unlikely risk factors are presented and findings are contrasted against the extensive data available for adults who offend sexually and adolescent criminality in general. Limitations with the existing literature are noted, such as shortage of validated risk factors for qualitative aspects of reoffending and research specifically with females and ethnic minorities. Recent attempts to combine evidence-based risk factors with case-specific clinical considerations into structured professional or empirically guided judgment formats are presented. We conclude with suggesting practical strategies for the assessment and communication of recidivism risk. - tva.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/4/4/341

Risk Scales And Factors Predictive Of Sexual Offence Recidivism 
Leam A. Craig, Kevin D. Browne, Ian Stringer 
Accurate assessments of levels of risk posed by sexual offenders are in high demand as decisions concerning whether an offender should be released into the community can have severe consequences both for the offender and the public. This article reviews factors predictive of sexual offence recidivism and the 12 most widely used actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. It was found that 10 out of the 12 actuarial and clinical measures available are better at distinguishing general recidivism than sexual offence reoffending. Ten assessments predominately use static risk factors, and 7 do not consider treatment effects. Hence, the validity of these instruments for use with sex offenders is in question. It is argued that the use of both static factors and variations of dynamic risk factors, using the actuarial approach, will predict those offenders who will reoffend and distinguish them from those who are not likely to reoffend. Evidence-based dynamic risk factors that are sensitive to sexual reoffending are identified. - tva.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/4/1/45

Predictors of General and Violent Recidivism among Mentally Disordered Inmates 
DAVID B. VILLENEUVE, VERNON L. QUINSEY 
One hundred and twenty male inmates who had been released from a maximum-security inpatient psychiatric unit of a federal penitentiary were followed for an average of 92 months. Seventy-eight percent of the sample were arrested for any offense, and 50% were arrested for a violent offense. An actuarial instrument developed using Nuffield's (1982) method correlated .43 with violent recidivism, resulting in 32% relative improvement over chance. The predictors of violent recidivism in this instrument were the following: juvenile delinquency, younger age at release, drugs involved in offenses, violent convictions, separation from parents before age 16, alcohol involved in offenses, criminal versatility, short periods of employment, and no psychotic illness. These results support those of earlier follow-up studies, in particular, the negative association between psychosis and violent recidivism in high-risk samples and the use of actuarial instruments for appraising the long-term risk of violent recidivism. - cjb.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/22/4/397

Substance Use is a Robust Predictor of Adolescent Recidivism 
Mike Stoolmiller, Elaine A. Blechman 
How well does substance use predict adolescent recidivism? When the Cox proportional hazards model was applied to officially recorded first rearrest of 505 juvenile offenders, a best-fitting complex multivariate model indicated that: (a) parent reports that youths "often" use substances more than doubles first rearrest risk, (b) averaged youth and parent substance use reports predict recidivism better than a single source, (c) parent or youth denial of youth substance use predicts recidivism, (d) age at first arrest does not predict recidivism, (e) non-White/non-Asians have a 79% higher recidivism risk than peers, (f) parent-reported delinquency predicts recidivism with declining accuracy, and (g) substance use robustly predicts recidivism despite prior reported delinquency, gender, ethnicity, age, follow-up time, or data source. Findings are related to host-provocation theory. - cjb.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/32/3/302

Risk for Criminal Recidivism Among Young Sex Offenders 
NIKLAS LÅNGSTRÖM, MARTIN GRANN, Karolinska Institutet 
Several authors have emphasized the need for empirically derived instruments for reoffending risk assessment among young sex offenders (YSOs). The authors screened the literature on sex offenders for clinically or empirically motivated variables related to criminal recidivism, identifying 22 putative risk factors. All Swedish YSOs (aged 15-20) subjected to court-ordered forensic psychiatric investigations from 1988 through 1995 and available for follow-up (n = 46) were included (mean time at risk = 5 years). Base rates for sexual and general recidivism were 20% and 65%, respectively. Previous criminality, early onset conduct disorder, psychopathy, and use of death threats and weapons at index sex crime proved predictive of general but not sexual recidivism. Factors indicative of sexual deviance (early onset sexually abusive behavior, male victim choice, more than one victim) and poor social skills were associated with elevated risk for sexual reoffending. However, replication in independent samples is needed to corroborate these preliminary findings. - jiv.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/15/8/855

Predicting Recidivism in a Communitarian Society: China 
Jianhong Liu, Department of Sociology, Rhode Island College
Research on the prediction of recidivism has largely been an enterprise of Western criminology. Therefore, the identification and selection of predictors has tended to follow the individualistic traditions of the West. Important advances in models and methods have not been extended to non-Western societies such as China. This article explores the implications of communitarian features of Chinese urban communities for prediction of recidivism. The article applies the perspective of social capital to the specification of predictors. Available community social-capital measures are included in the prediction model to capture the effects of communitarian cultural features. The results indicate that social capital variables generally have significant effects. - ijo.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/49/4/392 

Analysis of Recidivism Rates Based on Risk and Needs Assessments - Foster, Michelle
Abstract: The focus of this work is on analyzing recidivism rates for offenders who have received risk and needs assessments. This study uses secondary data obtained from ICPSR and collected by the Los Angeles Probation Department from April 1997 to December 1997 for offenders placed on probation. The reoffending rates over there time periods are examined. The results of the logistic regression analysis are that offenders who have a drug abuse problem are more likely to offend at 12 months and 18 month timeframes rather than initially at 6 months. These results suggest a greater need for treatment services the longer an offender is probation instead of a shorter time period for treatment.

Recidivism Among Youth Released From The Youth Leadership Academy
To The City Challenge Intensive Aftercare Program - by Bruce Frederick and Dina Roy
RESEARCH ABSTRACT - Bureau of Justice Research and Innovation
The present study examined recidivism among 323 male juvenile delinquents from New York City who were released from the Sergeant Henry Johnson Youth Leadership Academy (YLA) to the City Challenge Intensive Aftercare Program (CCh) from May 1992 through June 1999. The primary purpose of the study was to determine whether efforts to improve the design and implementation of the YLA/CCh sequence had been accompanied by reductions in post-release recidivism.
Methods
Analyses of changes in recidivism rates controlled for changes in the distribution of youth characteristics and circumstances, including age, race, length of residential stay, time at risk, 2 measures of academic achievement, 4 measures of prior record, 4 measures of youth attitudes and behavior, 4 measures of youth's home environment, 5 measures of local crime and arrest rates, and 6 measures of local population and housing characteristics. These measures were combined in multivariate statistical models to produce scores reflecting the a priori risk of recidivism for each individual.
Findings
After controlling for changes in a priori risk, the study found no reduction in overall recidivism, as measured by post-release arrests for any criminal offenses. The study did find a statistically significant reduction between the second and third phases for certain measures of violent recidivism. The effects were strongest for short-term recidivism, that is, for rearrests for violent crimes within the first 6 months following release. During the second phase, the observed rate of violent recidivism within six months at risk had been more than double the rate expected on the basis of average a priori risk, but it dropped to levels slightly below a priori risk during the third and fourth phases. Despite this relative reduction, though, the absolute level of violent recidivism for the fourth phase was still high-17% within 6 months and 31% within 12 months.
Conclusion
Patterns in the detailed findings suggest that the relative reduction in violent recidivism was probably not due to changes in the characteristics and circumstances of participants, changes in pre-arrest revocation rates, changes in local arrest rates, or improvements in the YLA component. Among the most salient explanations, the most plausible is that the reduction was due primarily to improvements in the City Challenge Intensive Aftercare Program.

Risk of Alcohol-Impaired Driving Recidivism Among First Offenders and Multiple Offenders
William J. Rauch, DA, Paul L. Zador, PhD, Eileen M. Ahlin, MA, Jan M. Howard, PhD, Kevin C. Frissell, PhD and G. Doug Duncan, MS
Objectives. We sought to determine the statewide impact of having prior alcohol-impaired driving violations of any type on the rate of first occurrence or recidivism among drivers with 0, 1, 2, or 3 or more prior violations in Maryland.
Methods. We analyzed more than 100 million driver records from 1973 to 2004 and classified all Maryland drivers into 4 groups: those with 0, 1, 2, or 3 or more prior violations. The violation rates for approximately 21 million drivers in these 4 groups were compared for the study period 1999 to 2004.
Results. On average, there were 3.4, 24.3, 35.9, and 50.8 violations per 1000 drivers a year among those with 0, 1, 2, or 3 or more priors, respectively. The relative risks for men compared with women among these groups of drivers were 3.8, 1.2, 1.0, and 1.0, respectively.
Conclusions. The recidivism rate among first offenders more closely resembles that of second offenders than of nonoffenders. Men and women are at equal risk of recidivating once they have had a first violation documented. Any alcohol-impaired driving violation, not just convictions, is a marker for future recidivism.

Recidivism in the Republic of Ireland
Ian O'Donnell, University College Dublin, Ireland
Eric P. Baumer, University of Missouri-St Louis, USA and
Nicola Hughes, University College Dublin, Ireland
Abstract: As prison populations increase, the need for successful reintegration of ex-prisoners becomes more pressing. The challenge of what has become known as `re-entry' has stimulated an extensive body of research, much of it concentrated in a small number of jurisdictions and concerned with levels and predictors of recidivism. The limited geographic breadth of the research effort has hindered our capacity to consider theoretically relevant questions, such as whether particular societal conditions thought to be conducive to successful prisoner reintegration (e.g. high levels of social capital and informal social control) in fact translate into lower levels of recidivism. In this article we expand the reach of existing research by exploring levels and patterns of recidivism in uncharted territory—the Republic of Ireland—and by drawing out the implications of the patterns observed there for comparative analysis.

Understanding and Preventing Criminal Recidivism Among Adults With Psychotic Disorders
J. Steven Lamberti, M.D.
The high prevalence of adults with psychotic disorders in the criminal justice system has received much attention recently, but our understanding of this problem is marked by diverging opinions. Mental health professionals point to deinstitutionalization and our fragmented mental health system as primary causes. Criminologists minimize the role of mental illness and contend that persons with and without mental illness are arrested for the same reasons. Meanwhile, practice guidelines offer little guidance to clinicians about how to address the problem. Drawing upon contemporary crime prevention principles as well as current knowledge of psychotic disorders and their treatment, this article presents a conceptual framework for understanding and preventing criminal recidivism. The framework highlights the importance of individual and service-system risk variables and emphasizes the central role of treatment nonadherence as a mediator between modifiable risk variables and recidivism. On the basis of the conceptual framework described in this article, three necessary elements of intervention are presented for preventing recidivism among adults with psychotic disorders: competent care, access to services, and legal leverage. Research is needed to further define and test these intervention elements as foundations for future service delivery efforts.

Do Harsher Prison Conditions Reduce Recidivism? A Discontinuity-based Approach
M. Keith Chen, Yale University and Cowles Foundation
Jesse M. Shapiro, University of Chicago and NBER
American Law and Economics Review 2007 9(1):1-29; doi:10.1093/aler/ahm006
Send correspondence to: M. Keith Chen, Yale School of Management, 135 Prospect Street, PO Box 208200, New Haven, CT 06511, USA; E-mail: keith.chen@yale.edu.
Abstract: We estimate the causal effect of prison conditions on recidivism rates by exploiting a discontinuity in the assignment of federal prisoners to security levels. Inmates housed in higher security levels are no less likely to recidivate than those housed in minimum security; if anything, our estimates suggest that harsher prison conditions lead to more post-release crime. Though small sample sizes limit the precision of our estimates, we argue that our findings may have important implications for prison policy, and that our methodology is likely to be applicable beyond the particular context we study.
Earlier versions of this article circulated under the title "Does Prison Harden Inmates? A Discontinuity-based Approach." We are extremely grateful for data and helpful conversations to Scott Camp, Gerry Gaes, Miles Harer, Neal Langan, Bo Saylor, and their colleagues at the Federal Bureau of Prisons, ffice of Research and Evaluation. e thank Dan Benjamin, Judy Chevalier, John Donohue, Ray Fair, Matthew Gentzkow, Edward Glaeser, Claudia Goldin, Larry Katz, David Laibson, Steve Levitt, Ilyana Kuziemko, Emily Oster, Sharon Oster, Anne Piehl, Jim Ware and workshop participants at Harvard University, the University of Chicago, Ohio State University, the Yale School of Management, and Yale ISPS for feedback on earlier drafts. John Donohue, the editor, and two anonymous referees provided especially helpful comments.

PREDICTORS OF SEXUAL OFFENDER RECIDIVISM:
A META-ANALYSIS - 1996-04
R. Karl Hanson, Monique T. Bussière
The views expressed are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Ministry of the Solicitor General of Canada.
This document is available in French. Ce rapport est disponible en français sous le titre:
Les prédicteurs de la récidive chez les délinquants sexuels : une méta-analyse.
Public Works and Government Services Canada
Cat. No. JS4-1/1996-4E
ISBN: 0-662-24790-6
This review provides a quantitative summary of recidivism risk factors for sexual offenders. Based on 61 different data sets, approximately one third of the 165 predictor variables were significantly related to recidivism (p < .05) with correlations of .10 or greater. Sexual offense recidivism was best predicted by measures of sexual deviance (e.g., deviant sexual preferences, prior sexual offenses), and, to a lesser extent, general criminological factors (e.g., age, total prior offenses). The predictors of nonsexual violent recidivism and general recidivism were similar to those recidivism predictors found among nonsexual criminals. No single factor was sufficiently related to recidivism, however, to justify its use in isolation. There remains a need for research to identify changeable, dynamic risk factors.

Inmate Recidivism as a Measure of Private Prison Performance
Andrew L. Spivak, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Susan F. Sharp, University of Oklahoma, Norman
Abstract: The growth of the private corrections industry has elicited interest in the comparative performance of state and private prisons. One way to measure the service quality of private prisons is to examine inmates' postrelease performance. Current empirical evidence is limited to four studies, all conducted in Florida. This analysis replicates and adds to the Florida measures in a different state and enhances previous methods. It uses data for a large cohort of Oklahoma state prison inmates released between 1997 and 2001. Controlling for known covariates, multivariate survival analysis revealed comparative rates of reincarceration for inmates in multiple exposure and comparison groups. These results are unique among prior studies on this topic; private prison inmates had a greater hazard of recidivism in all eight models tested, six of which were statistically significant. Finding no empirical support for claims of superior service from private corrections, the authors discuss policy implications and prospects for future research.

Prison Conditions and Recidivism
by Francesco Drago, Roberto Galbiati, Pietro Vertova
British Journal of Criminology 2008 48(3):337-358; doi:10.1093/bjc/azn002
Abstract: We use a unique data set on post-release behavior of former Italian inmates to estimate the effect of prison conditions on recidivism. By combining different sources of data we exploit variation in prison conditions measured by: 1) the extent of overcrowding at the prison level, 2) the number of deaths in the facility of detention during an inmate’s stay and 3) the distance of the prison from the chief town of the province where the prison is located. By considering inmates who served their sentence in a jurisdiction different from the hometown in which they live after release, we can include province of residence fixed effects and account for the main source of unobserved heterogeneity correlated to prison conditions. We find that a harsher prison treatment does not reduce former inmates’ criminal activity. The extent of overcrowding and the number of deaths do not decrease the probability to be re-arrested. Instead, we find evidence that the degree of isolation measured by distance from the prison of detention to the chief town of the province where the prison is located increases recidivism.

Race, Concentrated Disadvantage, and Recidivism: A Test of Interaction Effects
Wehrman, M. M.
Abstract: The goal of this study is to test the relative strengths of individual and community variables in predicting recidivism. Previous research shows that individual variables can account to predict recidivism to some degree. However, does the community in which an ex-prisoner lives and works have a measurable effect on the likelihood of recidivism as well? Of particular interest is the interaction between concentrated disadvantage and race. Results show that race strongly predicts recidivism (blacks being much more likely to recidivate than whites). This remains the case in spite of multiple controls accounting for racial differences, and concentrated disadvantage has no effect on recidivism. The study considers what might account for the lingering racial effect, and why the community does not effect the likelihood of recidivism.

RECIDIVISM
M D Maltz
Sponsoring Agency:     US Dept of Justice, National Institute of Justice
ISBN 0-12-468980-9
Abstract:     This book attempts to provide a framework for the development of a method of studying recidivism, the reversion of an individual to criminal behavior after having been convicted, sentenced and, presumably, corrected. The first half of the book focuses on the problem of appropriately defining recidivism and how different definitions can affect the outcome of a study. This can result in improper policy decisions when reliance is placed on studies that use faulty definitions. The author discusses the many goals of the correctional systems and puts into perspective the significance of recidivism in measuring the effectiveness of corrections. The second part of the book focuses on the need to select an appropriate analytical technique to apply to recidivism data. Deficiencies in standard research methodology for analyzing recidivism data are noted. Several other methods and models that overcome these deficiencies are described. This part of the book involves detailed statistical analysis for selecting the best method for analyzing recidivism data. The book is intended primarily for criminal justice researchers, particularly those who use and teach research methods. Because of the complexity of the material, a background in graduate level research methods and statistical methods and acquaintance with exponential distribution are recommended.

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